I’m In a Purple State of Mind

Last year my husband and I left true blue New York for redder pastures in the south. Little did I know we might be giving up a pair of swing state votes:

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent.

The Siena poll has New York looking pretty purple.

I’ve been eligible to vote in three presidential elections, and each time the Dems won New York comfortably, with 58 to 60 percent of the vote. But this year, even though Empire State Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2.3 million voters, it looks like my motherland might actually be in play for McCain. That’s likely an overly optimistic outlook, but we’ll see what other polls say during the coming days.

I almost feel guilty for leaving New York when my vote could have helped. I guess if I want to influence the outcome in a battleground state, I’ll have to keep working on my Obama-leaning sister in Colorado.

Update, 9/17/08: As I kind of expected, pollsters are raining on my parade.  The latest Rasmussen poll gives Obama 55% of likely New York voters and McCain 42%.  That gives Obama a nice 13 point cushion, and Rasmussen estimates the Dems have an almost 90% chance of taking New York’s Electoral votes in November.

Still, it’s worth noting that Rasmussen gave Obama a 31 point lead in June and a 20 point lead last month.  He probably won’t take New York, but his performance will be embarrassingly lackluster compared to Kerry and Gore.

Published by Jenn Q. Public on September 16, 2008 at 3:27 am

Filed Under Election 2008

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